Three years after Chloe Kelly’s dramatic extra-time goal secured England their historic Euro 2022 triumph at Wembley, the landscape of European women’s football has shifted.

As Euro 2025 approaches, all eyes are on Spain. Despite being knocked out by England in the quarter-finals in 2022, the reigning world champions have emerged as frontrunners in the latest pre-tournament forecasts. According to Opta’s prediction model, Spain have a 25% chance of lifting the trophy this summer — the highest of any team.

Victory would put La Roja in elite company, making them only the second women’s side to win the World Cup and the Euros consecutively. The only other nation to have achieved such dominance is Germany, who claimed an incredible five major titles in a row between 2001 and 2009.

England, the defending champions, are tipped to be Spain’s biggest threat. Sarina Wiegman’s squad is given a 17% chance of retaining their title. Impressively, the Lionesses reach the final in 29% of Opta’s simulations, a testament to both their squad depth and Wiegman’s stellar tournament record. The Dutch coach has a perfect record in Women’s Euros competition — 12 wins from 12 matches across her title-winning campaigns with the Netherlands in 2017 and England in 2022.

However, a clash between the current world and European champions may come earlier than fans would hope. If both nations top their respective groups, they’ll be on a collision course for a semi-final showdown in Switzerland — potentially denying us a repeat of the 2023 World Cup final, which Spain narrowly won 1-0 in Sydney.

Opta’s model estimates the likelihood of each match outcome — win, draw, or loss — using a combination of betting market odds and its proprietary team rankings. These rankings take into account past performances, recent form, and the strength of the opposition, as well as the difficulty of each team’s path to the final.

With Euro 2025 shaping up to be one of the most competitive editions yet, England and Spain look set to lead the charge — but in football, predictions can only go so far. The real story will unfold on the pitch.