A sharp reduction in U.S. humanitarian aid under former President Donald Trump could result in more than 14 million preventable deaths by the year 2030, according to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal.

Researchers estimate that one-third of the projected deaths would be among children, underscoring the devastating impact of the funding cuts on the world’s most vulnerable populations.

Earlier this year, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the Trump administration had canceled over 80% of programs under the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The move, he said, was part of a broader effort to streamline government operations and reduce federal spending.

“For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” said Davide Rasella, a co-author of the report and a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.

He warned that the cuts threaten to “abruptly halt – and even reverse – two decades of progress in global health.”

The findings were released as world leaders gathered in Seville, Spain, for the largest UN-led humanitarian aid summit in a decade.

Looking at data from 133 low- and middle-income countries between 2001 and 2021, the study found that U.S. foreign aid helped prevent an estimated 91 million deaths. Using predictive modeling, researchers forecasted that slashing USAID funding by 83%—as announced by the Trump administration—could result in over 14 million additional deaths over the next five years. This includes more than 4.5 million children under the age of five, averaging 700,000 child deaths annually.

The Trump administration’s cuts were part of a broader strategy, influenced in part by cost-reduction initiatives previously championed by billionaire Elon Musk. The White House also accused USAID of backing ideologically liberal initiatives.

Despite the cuts, Rubio stated that about 1,000 aid programs would continue under the oversight of the State Department and in coordination with Congress, claiming these would be managed “more effectively.”

However, humanitarian workers say the reality on the ground paints a different picture. A United Nations official recently told the BBC that food rations in refugee camps in Kenya had dropped to their lowest levels ever, with hundreds of thousands of people facing chronic hunger as a direct result of the U.S. funding cuts.

In one hospital in Kakuma, northwest Kenya, BBC reporters documented a malnourished infant suffering from peeling, wrinkled skin—clear signs of severe undernourishment.

The U.S. remains the world’s largest provider of foreign aid, operating in more than 60 countries. But experts and aid workers now warn that the scaling back of its assistance could trigger a global health crisis on a scale not seen in decades.