U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration once pledged “90 deals in 90 days” as part of its bold trade strategy—promising swift action and new tariffs framed as “reciprocal.” But as the first self-imposed deadline of July 9 approaches, the reality is falling far short: not even nine deals are in place.

The clearest sign of retreat is the quiet extension of this deadline—now pushed to August 1, with more delays possibly ahead. While publicly positioned as strategic patience, this delay reflects deep challenges in securing trade concessions from other nations.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said U.S. efforts are focused on the 18 countries accounting for the bulk of America’s trade deficit. But the latest round of letters sent to these countries echoes earlier warnings, essentially recycling language and logic from Trump’s previously shelved “Liberation Day” trade agenda.

The tariff rates being discussed are nearly identical to those unveiled back on April 2. The administration still appears to be using America’s trade deficits as a stand-in for what it deems unfair practices, despite criticism of that approach from economists and trade experts.

Unlike earlier in the year, the markets have remained relatively stable amid this latest round of tariff threats. That’s partly because investors have come to expect what some call the “TACO” effect—Trump Always Chickens Out. But these repeated delays may also embolden other countries to stall, leading to deeper deadlocks or eventual market shocks.

What’s increasingly clear is the administration’s struggle to secure meaningful agreements. The formal letters being sent out to trading partners now resemble confessions of stalled progress rather than announcements of victory.

Countries like Japan and South Korea—both initially singled out—have responded with open frustration. Japan’s finance minister even hinted at a powerful form of retaliation: leveraging its massive holdings of U.S. government debt to gain influence.

Since April, little has changed in the global dynamic. When the White House ramps up trade war rhetoric, U.S. markets recoil, and retailers warn of higher prices and product shortages. There’s also still a legal case moving through the courts that could ultimately declare these tariffs unlawful.

Meanwhile, global trade patterns are shifting. The U.S. dollar has dropped roughly 10% against a basket of currencies this year, the opposite of what Bessent predicted would help offset inflation caused by tariffs.

Trade data shows volatility, but also some clear trends. While Chinese exports to the U.S. have dropped nearly 10% this year, China has increased trade with the rest of the world—exports to the UK are up 7.4%, ASEAN nations 12.2%, and Africa nearly 19%.

At the same time, the U.S. is collecting record tariff revenue, with a spike in May. Yet even as funds pour into the Treasury, the bigger picture suggests the U.S. is isolating itself behind a growing tariff wall.

Once a relatively low-tariff country, the U.S. now imposes an average rate of around 15% on imports—up dramatically from the 2–4% range that had held steady for four decades.

The rest of the world, in contrast, is moving on. Countries are striking fresh trade deals with each other—such as the UK-India and EU-Canada agreements—strengthening ties outside the U.S.-centric system.

For now, financial markets are calm. But if diplomacy continues to stall and tariff threats keep escalating, that may not last.