As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, Iraq finds itself delicately balancing to avoid being drawn into a broader regional confrontation. Positioned at the crossroads of geopolitical fault lines, Iraq is working to preserve internal stability while managing relationships with powerful neighbors and allies.

The recent escalation between Israel and Iran — marked by airstrikes, proxy clashes, and mounting military rhetoric — has raised alarm across the Middle East. For Iraq, which hosts a variety of pro-Iranian armed groups and remains home to American military personnel, the risks of being caught in the crossfire are substantial.

A Fragile Internal Landscape

Iraq’s government, under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, is under pressure to maintain domestic calm in the face of international tensions. The country has only recently emerged from years of sectarian conflict, ISIS insurgency, and political instability. Any spillover from a regional war could destabilize fragile security gains and derail reconstruction efforts.

Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, many of which operate under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have historically responded to Iranian interests — particularly in retaliating against U.S. and Israeli actions. However, the Iraqi government is keen to prevent these groups from dragging the country into a foreign conflict.

“We do not want Iraq to become a battleground for others,” a senior government official recently stated, emphasizing Baghdad’s commitment to neutrality.

Balancing Regional Alliances

Iraq’s unique position — maintaining strong political ties with Iran while also cooperating with the United States — has forced it into a diplomatic balancing act. Iran is a dominant player in Iraq’s political and security spheres, while the U.S. continues to provide military support and training, particularly in counterterrorism operations.

To maintain this delicate balance, Iraqi officials are quietly engaging with both sides, urging restraint and discouraging retaliatory strikes from being launched from or through Iraqi territory. Baghdad has also increased diplomatic communication with neighboring countries to de-escalate the situation and prevent regional flare-ups from spilling across its borders.

The Threat of Proxy Warfare

The danger of Iraq becoming a proxy battleground remains real. Several armed factions with loyalty to Tehran have already vowed support for Iran in the event of an open war. Any such involvement could provoke further U.S. or Israeli responses, putting Iraqi territory — and civilians — at direct risk.

Additionally, previous Israeli strikes on Iranian-backed groups in Syria have sometimes extended into Iraq, further highlighting the country’s vulnerability to regional military operations.

A Call for Regional Restraint

In recent weeks, Iraqi leaders have intensified calls for diplomatic solutions and regional cooperation. Officials are advocating for a collective security dialogue that includes Iran, Gulf countries, and Western powers to prevent conflict escalation.

Baghdad is also working with the Arab League and international partners to push for renewed peace efforts, warning that another war in the Middle East would have devastating consequences — not just for the countries directly involved, but for the entire region.

Iraq’s High-Stakes Gamble

As Israel and Iran edge closer to direct confrontation, Iraq’s leadership is navigating an extraordinarily complex landscape. The government’s efforts to remain neutral and prevent Iraq from becoming a theater for proxy warfare reflect both caution and strategic necessity.

But with loyalties divided, and armed actors beyond full state control, Iraq’s ability to stay on the sidelines is far from guaranteed. The coming weeks will test not only its diplomatic skills, but also the resilience of its still-recovering political system.