GENEVA — The United Nations has issued a stark new climate alert: the world is on the verge of breaching the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold within the next five years. According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 70% probability that average global temperatures between 2025 and 2029 will exceed the internationally agreed target set by the Paris Climate Agreement.

This alarming forecast follows back-to-back record-breaking years in 2023 and 2024 — the hottest years on record, highlighting the growing urgency of climate action.

“The last decade has been the hottest we’ve ever recorded,” said Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO. “The latest data shows no signs of a slowdown, and the consequences are becoming more severe for our health, environment, and economies.”

Paris Agreement Goals in Jeopardy

Signed in 2015, the Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, with carbon dioxide emissions still on the rise, climate experts are increasingly skeptical about the feasibility of keeping warming below that 1.5°C goal.

The WMO’s findings, based on data from leading global meteorological centers and compiled by the UK Met Office, project that global average surface temperatures between 2025 and 2029 will range from 1.2°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial norms. Notably, there’s an 80% likelihood that at least one of these years will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

Approaching the Point of No Return

Peter Thorne, a climate researcher at Ireland’s Maynooth University, warned that we may be on the cusp of locking in 1.5°C warming permanently.

“In just a few years, the chance of breaching 1.5°C for a five-year period could become almost certain,” he said.

And in a startling development, computer models for the first time have indicated a non-zero chance (1%) that a single year within the next five could even breach 2°C of warming — a scenario long deemed nearly impossible in the short term.

Dangerous Impacts Already Visible

Even with current warming levels, the planet is already experiencing increasingly destructive climate events. In recent weeks:

• China saw temperatures surpass 40°C.
• The UAE recorded a blistering 52°C.
• Pakistan was battered by deadly windstorms following a severe heatwave.

Extreme weather has become the new normal — from floods in India, Algeria, France, Ghana, and Australia, to wildfires across Canada.

“We’ve already crossed into dangerous territory,” warned Dr. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. “Continuing to rely on fossil fuels in 2025 is not just short-sighted — it’s madness.”

What the Future Holds

The report also forecasts regional climate changes over the next five years:

• The Arctic will continue to warm at a rate faster than the global average, accelerating ice melt.
• Sea ice is expected to shrink further in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas.
• South Asia, including countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, will likely experience wetter-than-average conditions.
• The Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia are also expected to see increased rainfall.
• In contrast, the Amazon Basin faces a higher risk of dry conditions, threatening biodiversity and ecosystems.

Christopher Hewitt, WMO’s Director of Climate Services, noted that while different models assess long-term warming in various ways, trends all point in one direction — upward.

A 20-year warming average (2015–2034) is projected to hit 1.44°C, inching ever closer to the upper limit set by the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, Copernicus, the EU’s climate agency, estimates that the planet is already at 1.39°C warming — and may hit 1.5°C by mid-2029 or earlier.

The Call to Action

As global temperatures trend upward, scientists and international bodies are calling for a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The message is clear: unless humanity rapidly transitions away from coal, oil, and gas, the world will soon be living in an environment no longer shaped by past norms — but by escalating climate extremes.