DHAKA: A year after mass protests toppled the government of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s foreign policy has taken a dramatic turn—moving closer to China and further away from longtime ally India. The shift has sparked concerns in New Delhi, where officials are uneasy over Dhaka’s growing ties with Beijing and Islamabad.

The fallout from the revolution that ousted Hasina in August 2024 continues to reverberate across the region. Her dramatic escape to India by helicopter amid a student-led uprising has fueled public anger in Bangladesh, especially after New Delhi granted her sanctuary.

“India-Bangladesh relations have likely never been under such intense strain,” said Praveen Donthi, a political analyst with the International Crisis Group. “The resentment over Hasina’s presence in India is deep and politically charged.”

Hasina, now 77, has ignored extradition requests to face charges in her homeland. She’s already been convicted in absentia for contempt of court and sentenced to six months in prison.

Dhaka’s Diplomatic Shift

Under the interim leadership of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh is undergoing what Foreign Minister Md Touhid Hossain called a “readjustment” of its foreign relations. Yunus made China his first state visit in March, returning with $2.1 billion in investment, loans, and grants. Beijing has also been actively engaging with Bangladesh’s political elite, including members of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), currently leading in the polls.

“China is eager to work with any future government in Bangladesh with sincerity and affection,” said Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior BNP leader.

India, long wary of China’s expanding influence in South Asia, is watching the developments with concern—particularly as Bangladesh also strengthens ties with Pakistan. Tensions between India and Pakistan recently flared again, with over 70 people killed during cross-border violence in May.

The following month, officials from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and China held joint meetings and announced plans for cooperation in trade, education, agriculture, and industry. China’s Foreign Ministry described the collaboration as a strategic partnership.

Bangladeshi academic Obaidul Haque said the benefits of the new partnerships are already visible. “China, for instance, designated hospitals specifically for Bangladeshi patients after India restricted access to its once-popular medical facilities,” he noted.

Warming to Pakistan, Worrying India

For India, the growing cooperation between Dhaka, Beijing, and Islamabad—especially between two countries it shares tense relations with—is deeply troubling.

“India’s current political leadership, with its ideological stance, finds it hard to accept a Bangladeshi government they view as Islamist or hostile,” Donthi said. “Dhaka’s open engagement with Beijing and Islamabad only deepens that perception.”

Bangladesh and Pakistan resumed maritime trade last year and plan to launch direct flights soon—moves that New Delhi views with suspicion. In response, India has imposed new trade barriers on Bangladeshi exports, including jute, garments, and plastics. Bangladesh has responded with its own restrictions.

Despite rising political friction, trade between the two neighbors remains strong. However, Md Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladeshi ambassador to India and the US, warned against overreliance on any one power.

“Bangladesh should tread carefully when forming alliances,” Kabir said. “Maintaining multilateral relations will ensure balance and long-term stability.”

Caught in Global Crosscurrents

Bangladesh’s foreign relations have also been impacted by broader geopolitical shifts, including U.S. trade policy. As the world’s second-largest garment exporter, Bangladesh has been hit hard by new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. In response, Dhaka has proposed purchasing Boeing aircraft and increasing imports of American wheat, oil, and cotton to narrow its trade deficit. In June, Yunus reaffirmed his commitment to stronger ties with Washington during talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

But regionally, analysts see little hope for a thaw in India-Bangladesh relations under the current leadership in Dhaka.

“New Delhi is unlikely to soften its position unless it sees an electoral process that brings a government more aligned with its interests,” said Donthi. “Until then, it’s more likely that India will try to undermine the current administration rather than work with it.”

As Bangladesh prepares for elections next year, the country’s new geopolitical direction has already reshaped its regional alliances—and introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty to South Asia’s delicate balance of power.