After spending nearly two weeks in hiding during the war with Israel, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, is expected to reappear in a nation transformed by conflict and crisis. Reports suggest he remained in a secret bunker, unreachable even to top officials, amid fears of an Israeli assassination attempt.

Though a fragile ceasefire was recently brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump and Qatar’s Emir, the damage has already been done — militarily, politically, and socially.

A Nation in Ruin

Iran has suffered significant military losses. Israel’s strikes reportedly devastated key military infrastructure, killing senior commanders and damaging nuclear facilities that cost the nation decades of investment and international sanctions. The question now asked by many Iranians: was it worth it?

The conflict has further eroded Iran’s already struggling economy and left cities in devastation. Many citizens place blame squarely on Khamenei, accusing him of steering the country into a ruinous path with his ideological commitment to opposing Israel and pursuing nuclear capabilities.

Dissent from Within

The crisis has exposed divisions at the top of Iran’s leadership. Some former regime figures have appealed to the clerical establishment in Qom to consider a change in leadership. While the regime retains internal control, frustration among the population is growing.

“There will be a reckoning,” says Professor Ali Ansari from the University of St Andrews. “Discontent exists both among leadership and the public.”

Despite efforts by Iranians to support one another during the war — including acts of kindness in towns and villages — few rallied in defense of the regime. Many want change, though not one orchestrated by foreign powers.

A Fragile Ceasefire and a Fearful Public

The ceasefire has brought little relief. Public fear is shifting from the destruction of war to the threat of increased domestic repression. The government has executed several individuals accused of spying and arrested hundreds. Citizens worry the regime, humiliated and under pressure, will turn its anger inward.

“If the regime cannot provide for the people, anger and frustration will grow,” warns Prof. Ansari.

Missile Threats and Nuclear Uncertainty

While much of Iran’s military was damaged, its hidden ballistic missile silos survived, raising concern in Israel and the West. Iran is believed to still possess up to 1,500 missiles capable of striking regional targets.

There is also renewed anxiety over Iran’s nuclear intentions. Although key nuclear facilities were likely damaged, Iran claims to have secured its enriched uranium stockpile and continues to resist international inspections. A vote in Iran’s parliament to limit cooperation with the IAEA could signal a step toward exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), increasing fears of a nuclear breakout.

An Uncertain Future

At 86 and reportedly ailing, Ayatollah Khamenei faces the twilight of his leadership. Whether he reemerges to reassure the nation or to begin a transition of power, he does so in a country that has been fundamentally altered — weaker militarily, more divided politically, and deeply uncertain about what comes next.