Former President Donald Trump’s renewed pledge to implement sweeping tariffs if reelected is sparking fresh concern among economists, investors, and global leaders, who warn that the move could significantly dampen global economic growth.

Trump, currently the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, has proposed imposing a 10% universal tariff on all imported goods, along with targeted tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese products. These protectionist policies, echoing measures from his first term, are being framed as tools to “revive American industry” and “combat unfair trade practices.” However, many experts argue that such tariffs would backfire, dragging down international trade, raising consumer prices, and slowing global economic recovery.

Tariffs and the Risk to Global Growth

According to a recent analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s proposed tariff strategy could reduce global GDP growth by as much as 0.7 percentage points over a five-year period. U.S. allies in Europe and Asia—many of whom are already experiencing sluggish post-pandemic recovery—could bear the brunt of trade disruptions and retaliatory measures.

“Trump’s tariff proposals risk setting off a new wave of global trade wars,” said Mariana Santos, a senior economist at the World Trade Forum. “These policies create uncertainty in global supply chains, raise costs for manufacturers, and ultimately undermine both American competitiveness and global economic momentum.”

Impact on U.S. Consumers and Businesses

Domestically, the impact could be equally stark. A 10% blanket tariff would likely raise prices on a wide range of imported goods—from electronics to clothing—putting additional pressure on U.S. consumers already grappling with inflation. Businesses dependent on foreign components could face higher costs, forcing them to pass expenses to consumers or cut jobs.

A 2024 report by the Congressional Budget Office found that Trump-era tariffs implemented during his first term had a net negative effect on the U.S. economy, despite temporary boosts to some domestic industries like steel and aluminum. The same report indicated that retaliatory tariffs from China and other nations cost American farmers billions in lost export revenue.

Retaliation and Supply Chain Disruption

China has signaled it will respond firmly if Trump follows through on his tariff threats. “Any further provocation will be met with appropriate countermeasures,” a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce stated. Analysts warn that this could disrupt global supply chains that remain fragile due to pandemic aftershocks and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Multinational corporations, already navigating a complex web of tariffs and regulations, may delay investments or shift operations, compounding economic uncertainty.

Global Cooperation at Risk

Perhaps most significantly, critics argue that Trump’s aggressive trade stance could undermine decades of global cooperation built through the World Trade Organization and other multilateral institutions. A retreat from free trade could deepen global economic fragmentation and hinder collective efforts to tackle challenges such as climate change, energy transition, and technological development.

Conclusion

While Trump’s proposed tariffs are framed as a means of protecting American jobs and industries, many economists caution they may instead trigger a damaging cycle of retaliation, price hikes, and slowed growth—not just in the United States, but across the global economy.

As the 2024 election looms, the debate over trade policy is likely to intensify, with far-reaching consequences for businesses, consumers, and nations worldwide.