Israel’s governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was thrown into disarray early Tuesday when United Torah Judaism, a key ultra-Orthodox partner, announced its withdrawal from the government. The move, driven by disputes over a proposed military draft law that would maintain exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students, threatens to weaken Netanyahu’s hold on power at a critical juncture in the ongoing Gaza conflict.

The ultra-Orthodox party’s two factions, including Degel HaTorah, cited the government’s failure to honor commitments to protect the draft-exempt status of their constituents, who prioritize religious study over mandatory military service. This issue has long been a point of contention in Israel, where most citizens are required to enlist, and tensions have escalated since the 21-month Gaza war increased military demands.

While United Torah Judaism’s exit, effective within 48 hours, does not immediately topple Netanyahu’s government, it reduces his coalition to a fragile majority, increasing reliance on two far-right parties. These parties, which oppose ceasefire concessions with Hamas, have previously threatened to leave over efforts to pause or end the Gaza conflict. The timing is precarious, as Israel, under pressure from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, engages in stalled truce negotiations with Hamas, with disagreements persisting over whether the war should end as part of any deal.

Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, noted that bridging the gap with United Torah Judaism within the 48-hour window appears unlikely due to significant differences over the draft law. However, procedural constraints prevent the opposition from forcing a vote to dissolve parliament until year’s end, and an upcoming parliamentary recess from late July to October offers Netanyahu time to negotiate the party’s return.

Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar of Netanyahu’s Likud party expressed optimism about reconciling with United Torah Judaism, stating, “God willing, everything will be fine.” The Likud party has not yet issued an official response. With the coalition’s stability in question and the Gaza war talks faltering, Netanyahu faces mounting challenges to maintain his government’s cohesion.