Despite President Donald Trump dismissing Elon Musk’s newly announced “America Party” as “ridiculous,” political analysts caution that the tech billionaire’s entry into politics could pose a serious threat to Republicans, especially as they defend narrow congressional majorities ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Musk launched the America Party just days after criticizing a major domestic policy bill signed by Trump, which he claims will drastically increase the national deficit. Though Musk has yet to lay out a detailed policy agenda, sources say he is expected to challenge select House and Senate seats—particularly those held by Republicans who backed the spending bill despite campaigning on fiscal discipline.

“[Elon] Musk’s America Party is a wild card that could upend the 2026 midterms, particularly for Republicans,” said Matt Shoemaker, a former Republican congressional candidate and intelligence officer. “With such thin majorities in Congress, they have every reason to be concerned.”

Musk’s popularity among younger, tech-savvy Americans—many of whom are independents or swing voters—adds to the unpredictability. In June, Musk ran a Twitter poll gauging interest in a new political movement. Over 5.6 million responded, with 80% voicing support.

Armed with immense personal wealth—his net worth estimated at $405 billion—Musk brings unmatched financial firepower to his political ambitions. He previously donated $277 million to Trump’s 2024 campaign. But his $20 million investment in a failed Wisconsin Supreme Court race has shown that money alone doesn’t guarantee victory.

Unlike most third-party efforts, Musk’s campaign has the ability to rapidly scale with both resources and a loyal online following. Still, experts caution that translating internet popularity into votes, especially in the American heartland, won’t be easy.

“Musk appeals to disillusioned voters who might otherwise support Republicans in competitive districts,” Shoemaker noted. “But many Republican voters remain deeply tied to the MAGA movement and to Trump himself.”

Polls suggest that Musk’s national appeal is limited. His favorability has declined sharply since joining the Trump administration as a cost-cutting adviser. According to recent polling by Nate Silver, Musk’s net favorability stands at -18.1, worse than Trump’s -6.6.

“Trump’s base is highly loyal,” said political science professor Flavio Hickel of Washington College. “Even with Musk’s resources and influence, it’s hard to imagine his movement winning over voters who already strongly support Trump.”

Historically, third parties have faced steep challenges in U.S. elections. While some, like the Conservative Party of New York in the 1970s or the Farmer-Labor Party in the 1930s, briefly held Senate seats, such victories are rare. In the House, third-party representation has been nearly nonexistent for decades.

Analysts also highlight the practical barriers facing third-party candidates, including burdensome ballot access requirements, filing fees, and varying rules across states.

“Think back to early 2024 when the ‘No Labels’ party tried to offer a centrist alternative. That effort collapsed spectacularly,” said political strategist Matt Klink.

Still, experts agree Musk doesn’t need to win seats to make an impact. By targeting swing districts or bankrolling challengers to Trump-backed candidates, he could disrupt Republican strategies.

“Elon Musk’s party won’t win a majority, but it can certainly hurt Republicans in close races,” said Evan Nierman, CEO of crisis PR firm Red Banyan. “Even a small shift in votes could be enough to flip control in tight districts.”

As Musk prepares to test the political waters, one thing is clear: his unconventional approach and immense resources make him a disruptive force, even if he doesn’t fit the mold of a traditional politician.