By Global China Unit | BBC News

In a potentially game-changing development in the global fight against climate change, China — the world’s largest emitter, responsible for about 30% of global carbon emissions — has recorded a year-on-year decline in its emissions up to May 2025.

What sets this drop apart is its timing: emissions have fallen even as energy demand across China continues to grow. This is the first instance of a decrease that hasn’t been triggered by an economic slowdown or crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic. It marks a significant moment for a country whose industrial growth has long driven up global emissions.

“If not for China, global emissions would have stabilized a decade ago,” said Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, who found that China’s emissions declined by 1.6% compared to the previous year.

Why This Matters Now

Climate experts have repeatedly warned that simply stabilizing emissions is no longer enough. According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emissions must begin to fall — and fast — to keep global warming below the critical 1.5°C threshold. Crossing that line would expose millions to dangerous climate consequences.

China’s emissions shift could signal the beginning of such a reduction on a global scale — if the trend continues.

Green Technology Takes Center Stage

Much of the recent decline in emissions is credited to China’s massive investments in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power.

Myllyvirta notes that over the past few years, China has installed more than half of the world’s new wind and solar capacity. In fact, the solar power China added last year alone rivals the entire capacity of the European Union.

April 2025 data from UK-based energy think tank Ember shows that wind and solar combined produced more than 25% of China’s electricity for the first time. At the same time, fossil fuel electricity generation dropped 3.6% compared to the same period in 2024 — a significant reduction for a country long reliant on coal.

“China’s economy has traditionally leaned on coal,” said Ember energy analyst Yang Biqing. “So this shift is a remarkable turnaround — though coal remains an important backup source for now.”

China isn’t just using green tech — it’s leading the world in producing it. The country manufactures about 60% of the world’s wind turbines and 80% of solar panels, fueling a global rush for key minerals needed for clean energy.

However, this expansion hasn’t come without consequences. The surge in mining and mineral processing has been linked to environmental damage and human rights issues in some regions, according to a report by the Business and Human Rights Resource Centre.

A Global Comparison

Despite its progress, China’s renewable energy mix is still comparable to many Western countries. The UK generates 46.3% of its electricity from renewables, and the US — the world’s second-largest emitter — produces just over 20%.

China argues that it’s catching up with wealthy nations whose industrial development came with decades of high emissions. Although China’s total emissions are the highest, its per capita emissions are still below those of the US — though now roughly equal to Japan’s and higher than the UK and EU.

Will This Trend Last?

Experts warn that while the decline is promising, it may not be permanent.

“You can stay at that plateau for a long time, and that’s not enough for effective climate action,” said Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

External shocks — such as the war in Ukraine — have previously made Chinese policymakers more cautious, reinforcing the need for energy security. But this concern could actually accelerate the shift to renewables.

“China’s dominance in clean energy production gives it strategic security,” said Christoph Nedopil Wang of the Griffith Asia Institute. Reducing dependence on energy imports through local renewable sources makes strategic sense.

With China’s economy currently underperforming, policymakers are doubling down on low-emission sectors such as biotech, IT, electric vehicles, and clean energy. These sectors are expected to grow without pushing emissions higher.

The Path Ahead

Under the Paris Agreement, China has committed to cutting its carbon intensity — the emissions per unit of GDP — by over 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. But the country’s progress faltered during the Covid-19 pandemic. By the end of 2024, it had achieved only a 7.9% cut toward its 18% goal for 2020–2025.

Meeting the 2030 target will now require reducing total emissions, not just slowing their growth. Myllyvirta emphasizes that the current dip in emissions is a good start, but deeper reforms and strong policies are needed.

China may also be preparing to take a more assertive role in global climate leadership. During a climate summit in April, President Xi Jinping told world leaders: “Instead of talking the talk, we must walk the walk… we must turn our goals into tangible results.”

This signals a potential shift from China’s historical position of lagging behind developed nations in climate responsibility. With the U.S. facing internal political challenges to climate policy, China may see an opportunity to assert leadership on the global stage.