Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, appears increasingly isolated as a string of Israeli airstrikes has wiped out key figures within his closest circle of military and security advisers. With the deaths of some of the most influential commanders from Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards, analysts warn the supreme leader is navigating a volatile geopolitical moment with a significantly weakened inner team — raising concerns of potential miscalculations.

Sources familiar with the internal dynamics of Khamenei’s decision-making describe the situation as precarious. One insider who regularly participates in strategic meetings said the current vacuum at the top poses a serious threat to both Iran’s national security and internal stability, calling the risk of errors in judgment “extremely dangerous.”

The Collapse of a Command Network

The losses include several heavyweights in Iran’s military hierarchy: Hossein Salami, the overall commander of the Revolutionary Guards; Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the elite aerospace division overseeing Iran’s missile arsenal; and Mohammad Kazemi, the regime’s spymaster. These figures were more than military men — they were fixtures in Khamenei’s innermost advisory group, composed of roughly 15 to 20 trusted individuals from the Guards, religious circles, and the political elite.

This group, sources say, does not function as a formal council but rather convenes at Khamenei’s invitation to advise on critical matters. Loyalty to the Supreme Leader and unwavering support for the Islamic Republic’s ideological foundation are its defining traits.

Khamenei, a survivor of both pre-revolutionary imprisonment and an assassination attempt, has long held near-absolute power in Iran. As the ultimate authority over military, judicial, and religious institutions, he makes all key decisions — but relies heavily on advice and input from this now-depleted network.

A Leadership Style Under Strain

“He’s extremely stubborn, but also extremely cautious,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute. “Khamenei has lasted this long by always prioritizing regime survival above all else.”

This instinct for preservation has seen him deploy the Revolutionary Guards and their affiliated Basij militia to crush popular uprisings in 1999, 2009, and again during the nationwide protests of 2022. Yet decades of Western sanctions have inflicted deep economic damage, making internal dissent more frequent and harder to suppress.

Now, as Iran faces escalating conflict with Israel — including direct missile exchanges and strikes on nuclear and military infrastructure — the absence of experienced military voices could have profound consequences.

Power Consolidation Around Mojtaba Khamenei

In the vacuum left by the fallen commanders, the influence of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has become more pronounced. Over the past two decades, Mojtaba has steadily built a reputation as a behind-the-scenes operator, coordinating between military, political, and religious factions. Some insiders consider him a likely successor to his father.

A mid-ranking cleric with strong ties to the Revolutionary Guards, Mojtaba’s growing involvement in state affairs further centralizes authority within the Khamenei family. While this tightens the leader’s grip, it also reinforces perceptions of a shrinking, more insular power structure.

Other influential figures remain — including Mohammad Golpayegani, who heads the Supreme Leader’s office; Ali Asghar Hejazi, a top intelligence figure; and veteran diplomats like Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazi. Yet the loss of trusted military commanders, particularly those who shaped Iran’s regional defense strategy, is a serious blow.

A Shifting Regional Landscape

The situation is further complicated by Israel’s ongoing campaign against Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” — a network of allied forces and proxies across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Israeli strikes have not only targeted Iranian personnel but have disrupted command structures and logistics critical to Iran’s influence in the region.

Back in Tehran, Khamenei remains at the center of power, but the protective layers around him are thinner than ever. His leadership is now being tested by both external enemies and internal vulnerabilities — and the road ahead may demand more than caution and loyalty to maintain the regime’s grip on power.